~8 min read
A Value Bet (+EV) happens when the true probability of an outcome is greater than the bookmaker's implied probability. You are not betting on "which team is bigger" — you are betting on a mispriced number.
EV = (True Win Probability × Net Profit if Won) − (True Loss Probability × Stake)
2.25 (Implied probability = 44.4%)51.0% (Fair odds = 1.96)₦10,000 (Net profit if won = ₦12,500)Calculation: EV = (0.51 × ₦12,500) − (0.49 × ₦10,000) = ₦6,375 − ₦4,900 = +₦1,475 (+14.75% EV).
Even though Atalanta will still lose or draw 49% of the time in this scenario, placing 100 bets with this exact +14.75% EV profile generates an expected profit of +₦147,500.