Our model estimates the true chance of every outcome, then shops every bookmaker for a price that beats it. When the best price is longer than fair odds, it's flagged as value.
Sat 17 Oct, 15:00
Manchester City v Ipswich Town
Value selection
Ipswich Town to win
Best price 13.50 at betfair_ex_eu
Suggested stake: 0.28% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 92% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSat 10 Oct, 12:30
Arsenal v Leeds United
Value selection
Leeds United to win
Best price 9.00 at betfair_ex_uk
Suggested stake: 0.19% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 88% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace
Value selection
Crystal Palace to win
Best price 5.50 at casumo
Suggested stake: 0.32% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 81% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerModel chance for each outcome, with the best available price in brackets. Green = price above fair value.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arsenal v Leeds United Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 | 69%(1.44) | 19%(5.40) | 12%(9.00) | 41margin 5.7% |
Aston Villa v Brentford Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 | 36%(2.78) | 27%(3.65) | 37%(2.70) | 41margin 5.8% |
Chelsea v Bournemouth Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 | 56%(1.79) | 23%(4.50) | 21%(4.80) | 41margin 5.6% |
Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 | 32%(3.20) | 27%(3.70) | 41%(2.49) | 41margin 5.7% |
Ipswich Town v Fulham Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 | 34%(2.94) | 27%(3.65) | 39%(2.57) | 41margin 5.7% |
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 | 56%(1.76) | 23%(4.50) | 22%(4.70) | 41margin 5.7% |
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 | 36%(2.80) | 29%(3.44) | 35%(2.82) | 41margin 5.6% |
Hull City v Everton Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 | 26%(3.90) | 28%(3.54) | 46%(2.16) | 41margin 5.7% |
Liverpool v Manchester City Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 | 37%(2.70) | 26%(3.90) | 38%(2.67) | 41margin 5.8% |
Coventry City v Newcastle United Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 | 29%(3.55) | 26%(3.80) | 45%(2.18) | 40margin 6.1% |
Everton v Chelsea Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 | 33%(2.95) | 26%(3.86) | 41%(2.45) | 31margin 6.8% |
Brentford v Liverpool Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | 35%(2.88) | 25%(3.90) | 40%(2.50) | 30margin 6.7% |
Fulham v Hull City Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | 56%(1.74) | 24%(4.11) | 20%(5.18) | 31margin 6.7% |
Manchester City v Ipswich Town Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | 77%(1.26) | 14%(7.50) | 8%(13.50) | 28margin 6.6% |
Newcastle United v Aston Villa Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 | 46%(2.17) | 25%(3.95) | 29%(3.40) | 29margin 6.7% |
Bournemouth v Sunderland Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | 48%(2.04) | 26%(3.75) | 26%(3.85) | 29margin 6.7% |
Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | 58%(1.67) | 22%(4.45) | 19%(5.50) | 29margin 6.8% |
Leeds United v Manchester United Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | 33%(2.95) | 26%(3.80) | 41%(2.44) | 29margin 6.6% |
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 | 16%(6.20) | 24%(4.10) | 59%(1.66) | 29margin 6.9% |
Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 | 63%(1.54) | 21%(4.80) | 16%(6.47) | 29margin 6.6% |
Edges are small and results are noisy: a +4% edge still loses often and can take hundreds of bets to show. Prices move — always check the odds you're actually getting. Picks are model output, not guarantees. Log your bets in the Bet Tracker to see how they perform for you.
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