Our model estimates the true chance of every outcome, then shops every bookmaker for a price that beats it. When the best price is longer than fair odds, it's flagged as value.
Sat 10 Oct, 17:30
Barcelona v Getafe
Value selection
Getafe to win
Best price 45.00 at 1xBet
Suggested stake: 0.39% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 96% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSun 18 Oct, 20:00
Real Madrid v Sevilla
Value selection
Draw
Best price 7.20 at Tipico
Suggested stake: 0.30% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 85% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSat 17 Oct, 17:30
Real Betis v Barcelona
Value selection
Real Betis to win
Best price 6.50 at Tipico
Suggested stake: 0.33% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 83% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerModel chance for each outcome, with the best available price in brackets. Green = price above fair value.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Málaga v Espanyol Fri 9 Oct, 20:00 | 35%(2.88) | 30%(3.37) | 35%(2.84) | 37margin 6.4% |
Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 | 34%(3.00) | 29%(3.51) | 38%(2.68) | 37margin 6.1% |
Alavés v Atlético Madrid Sat 10 Oct, 15:15 | 22%(4.60) | 26%(3.85) | 52%(1.91) | 36margin 6.2% |
Barcelona v Getafe Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 | 89%(1.10) | 7%(18.50) | 4%(45.00) | 37margin 5.7% |
Real Madrid v Villarreal Sat 10 Oct, 20:00 | 71%(1.37) | 16%(6.40) | 12%(8.60) | 37margin 6.3% |
Elche CF v Celta Vigo Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 | 34%(2.93) | 29%(3.40) | 36%(2.75) | 37margin 6.2% |
Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña Sun 11 Oct, 15:15 | 57%(1.75) | 24%(4.20) | 19%(5.40) | 35margin 6.3% |
Real Betis v CA Osasuna Sun 11 Oct, 17:30 | 61%(1.64) | 22%(4.50) | 17%(6.20) | 37margin 6.3% |
Real Racing Club de Santander v Valencia Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 | 41%(2.42) | 27%(3.75) | 32%(3.15) | 37margin 6.3% |
Levante v Sevilla Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 | 36%(2.84) | 29%(3.41) | 35%(2.79) | 36margin 6.5% |
Deportivo La Coruña v Levante Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 | 46%(2.17) | 27%(3.62) | 27%(3.60) | 25margin 7.2% |
Espanyol v Atlético Madrid Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 | 23%(4.40) | 26%(3.84) | 51%(1.91) | 26margin 7.0% |
Villarreal v Elche CF Sat 17 Oct, 15:15 | 65%(1.51) | 20%(5.00) | 15%(6.73) | 27margin 7.3% |
Real Betis v Barcelona Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 | 17%(6.50) | 17%(6.20) | 67%(1.49) | 26margin 7.5% |
Valencia v Athletic Bilbao Sat 17 Oct, 20:00 | 27%(3.70) | 28%(3.58) | 45%(2.18) | 26margin 7.4% |
CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 | 50%(1.95) | 26%(3.75) | 24%(4.32) | 20margin 7.3% |
Celta Vigo v Alavés Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 | 47%(2.08) | 28%(3.58) | 25%(3.95) | 25margin 8.0% |
Málaga v Real Sociedad Sun 18 Oct, 17:30 | 30%(3.30) | 27%(3.63) | 43%(2.29) | 27margin 7.2% |
Real Madrid v Sevilla Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | 76%(1.30) | 15%(7.20) | 9%(11.50) | 26margin 7.2% |
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 | 34%(2.90) | 30%(3.25) | 36%(2.82) | 26margin 7.4% |
Edges are small and results are noisy: a +4% edge still loses often and can take hundreds of bets to show. Prices move — always check the odds you're actually getting. Picks are model output, not guarantees. Log your bets in the Bet Tracker to see how they perform for you.
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