Our model estimates the true chance of every outcome, then shops every bookmaker for a price that beats it. When the best price is longer than fair odds, it's flagged as value.
Sat 17 Oct, 17:30
Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig
Value selection
RB Leipzig to win
Best price 11.20 at 1xBet
Suggested stake: 0.36% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 90% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSat 10 Oct, 14:30
Augsburg v Bayern Munich
Value selection
Augsburg to win
Best price 12.50 at Betsson
Suggested stake: 0.27% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 91% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerFri 9 Oct, 19:30
Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen
Value selection
Werder Bremen to win
Best price 8.60 at Smarkets
Suggested stake: 0.34% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 87% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerModel chance for each outcome, with the best available price in brackets. Green = price above fair value.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 | 70%(1.41) | 17%(5.90) | 13%(8.60) | 40margin 6.4% |
Augsburg v Bayern Munich Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 | 9%(12.50) | 11%(9.40) | 80%(1.23) | 39margin 6.4% |
FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 | 33%(3.05) | 24%(4.20) | 43%(2.31) | 40margin 6.6% |
Union Berlin v Elversberg Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 | 41%(2.40) | 25%(4.00) | 33%(2.96) | 40margin 6.5% |
TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 | 67%(1.49) | 19%(5.40) | 14%(7.40) | 40margin 6.5% |
SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 | 20%(5.08) | 21%(4.83) | 60%(1.64) | 40margin 6.4% |
RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 | 62%(1.59) | 19%(5.25) | 19%(5.50) | 40margin 6.6% |
1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach Sun 11 Oct, 14:30 | 47%(2.08) | 24%(4.20) | 29%(3.57) | 40margin 6.5% |
SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 | 58%(1.71) | 23%(4.35) | 19%(5.44) | 40margin 6.4% |
Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln Fri 16 Oct, 19:30 | 49%(2.06) | 23%(4.40) | 28%(3.60) | 33margin 7.7% |
Elversberg v Augsburg Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | 39%(2.55) | 25%(4.00) | 36%(2.71) | 23margin 7.8% |
Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | 21%(5.20) | 22%(4.70) | 58%(1.73) | 23margin 7.8% |
FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | 33%(2.98) | 26%(3.80) | 41%(2.44) | 24margin 7.9% |
Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | 25%(4.10) | 23%(4.30) | 52%(1.90) | 25margin 7.8% |
Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | 53%(1.84) | 24%(4.26) | 24%(4.25) | 23margin 7.6% |
Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 | 76%(1.27) | 14%(8.00) | 10%(11.20) | 25margin 7.9% |
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg Sun 18 Oct, 14:30 | 57%(1.70) | 22%(4.51) | 21%(4.90) | 23margin 7.6% |
Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 | 29%(3.58) | 23%(4.40) | 48%(1.99) | 24margin 7.7% |
Edges are small and results are noisy: a +4% edge still loses often and can take hundreds of bets to show. Prices move — always check the odds you're actually getting. Picks are model output, not guarantees. Log your bets in the Bet Tracker to see how they perform for you.
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