Our model estimates the true chance of every outcome, then shops every bookmaker for a price that beats it. When the best price is longer than fair odds, it's flagged as value.
Sat 10 Oct, 17:00
Inter Milan v Parma
Value selection
Parma to win
Best price 23.00 at Betfair Sportsbook
Suggested stake: 0.33% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 94% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSat 10 Oct, 19:45
Napoli v Frosinone
Value selection
Frosinone to win
Best price 7.50 at Unibet (SE)
Suggested stake: 0.35% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 85% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerSat 17 Oct, 19:45
AS Roma v Genoa
Value selection
Genoa to win
Best price 10.50 at Unibet (NL)
Suggested stake: 0.22% of bankroll (quarter Kelly, capped at 2%). Loses 90% of the time.
Log to Bet TrackerModel chance for each outcome, with the best available price in brackets. Green = price above fair value.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Genoa v Fiorentina Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 | 30%(3.40) | 29%(3.48) | 41%(2.43) | 40margin 6.1% |
Inter Milan v Parma Sat 10 Oct, 17:00 | 83%(1.16) | 11%(9.85) | 6%(23.00) | 40margin 5.9% |
Napoli v Frosinone Sat 10 Oct, 19:45 | 66%(1.50) | 20%(5.20) | 15%(7.50) | 40margin 6.3% |
Como v AS Roma Sun 11 Oct, 11:30 | 37%(2.68) | 27%(3.71) | 36%(2.80) | 40margin 6.1% |
Lecce v Bologna Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 | 23%(4.61) | 28%(3.55) | 49%(2.00) | 40margin 6.3% |
Lazio v Monza Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 | 60%(1.63) | 24%(4.29) | 16%(6.30) | 40margin 6.3% |
Sassuolo v AC Milan Sun 11 Oct, 17:00 | 22%(4.50) | 25%(3.95) | 53%(1.89) | 40margin 6.1% |
Cagliari v Juventus Sun 11 Oct, 19:45 | 15%(6.80) | 24%(4.09) | 60%(1.62) | 40margin 6.3% |
Atalanta BC v Venezia Mon 12 Oct, 17:30 | 60%(1.66) | 23%(4.40) | 18%(6.13) | 40margin 6.5% |
Torino v Udinese Mon 12 Oct, 19:45 | 41%(2.40) | 29%(3.45) | 30%(3.40) | 39margin 6.4% |
Frosinone v Sassuolo Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 | 39%(2.53) | 27%(3.75) | 34%(2.96) | 28margin 7.4% |
Venezia v Napoli Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 | 21%(4.80) | 24%(4.22) | 55%(1.79) | 28margin 7.5% |
Bologna v Inter Milan Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 | 18%(5.55) | 23%(4.33) | 58%(1.69) | 28margin 7.5% |
AS Roma v Genoa Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 | 72%(1.36) | 18%(5.70) | 10%(10.50) | 28margin 7.3% |
Udinese v Lecce Sun 18 Oct, 11:30 | 51%(1.95) | 27%(3.71) | 23%(4.40) | 28margin 7.4% |
Fiorentina v Como Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | 28%(3.60) | 26%(3.81) | 46%(2.13) | 28margin 7.5% |
AC Milan v Atalanta BC Sun 18 Oct, 17:00 | 51%(1.95) | 26%(3.79) | 23%(4.30) | 28margin 7.5% |
Juventus v Lazio Sun 18 Oct, 19:45 | 57%(1.68) | 25%(4.12) | 18%(5.80) | 28margin 7.2% |
Monza v Cagliari Mon 19 Oct, 17:30 | 42%(2.40) | 30%(3.30) | 28%(3.65) | 28margin 7.3% |
Parma v Torino Mon 19 Oct, 19:45 | 30%(3.25) | 31%(3.25) | 39%(2.52) | 28margin 7.6% |
Edges are small and results are noisy: a +4% edge still loses often and can take hundreds of bets to show. Prices move — always check the odds you're actually getting. Picks are model output, not guarantees. Log your bets in the Bet Tracker to see how they perform for you.
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